Derren Brown - How To Beat Roulette

Einstein said that the only way to win at roulette is to steal the chips while the other players aren't looking. This hasn't stopped others from trying to find a scientific solution to what they perceive as a mathematical problem. Is there, for instance, a betting formula that will maximise winnings and reduce losses? Gamblers call these betting formulas 'systems'.

The internet is awash with systems, all promising to somehow give the player an edge. The most basic system is the Martingale which involves doubling your bet on each wager. The thinking behind it being that eventually you will win all your money back. Even if you did not have the zero to contend with the system would still not work because each casino will set a table limit on how much money can be wagered in a single bet. If you kept doubling your stake, you would reach that limit very quickly.

More complicated versions of the Martingale exist including the Labouchere. In this system the player uses a series of numbers to determine the size of the bet. Whether the bet wins or loses determines the amount of the next bet. However, like the Martingale, the system does not work. You just lose your money more slowly.

Belief in a system based approach to beating roulette is sustained by stories like that of Norman Leigh, told in his book Thirteen Against the Bank. Leigh wrote that in 1966 he gathered together a group of twelve people and trained them to use what he called a reverse Labouchere system. The system was first tested on Leigh's kitchen table with a small roulette wheel and then at a London casino. The players made money and encouraged by their success moved to Monte Carlo where they were challenged by a sceptical manager to try and take down the casino using their system. They didn't break the bank but they did win money. At least that is how Norman Leigh described it in his book. The reality is that like all other mathematical systems there is no evidence that the reverse Labouchere works. And no evidence to support Leigh's claims that his syndicate even existed.

Another approach to beating roulette is to determine whether there is any bias in the wheel, and if so bet on the numbers that come up most frequently. In 1873 engineer Joseph Jagger from Halifax gave a team of clerks the task of recording every winning number at a casino in Monte Carlo. He used the resulting data to guide his betting when he visited the casino in 1875. The data showed that nine of the numbers came up more frequently on one particularly biased wheel than all the others and it was on this wheel and these numbers that Jaggers wagered his money. To the casino's surprise he won £14,000, a huge sum in those days.

Within a few days Jaggers tripled his winnings at which point the casino rearranged the wheels in the casino in an attempt to thwart him. It worked and it was some time before Jaggers could determine which wheel was the one that had the bias. Even so, the casino made alterations to the wheel which changed the rate at which Jagger's favoured numbers came up. Jaggers was sensible enough to bring an end to the scheme and managed to leave the casino with a considerable amount of money, around £65,000 at that time, and he retired a very rich man. The story has been the source of inspiration for gamblers ever since.